Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 22.421296 24.357243 26.439582 28.855448 31.593128 34.613302 38.216595
2026-02-01 19.346275 22.000847 25.049984 28.849177 33.509905 39.113422 46.473481
2026-02-08 17.114236 20.160951 23.845503 28.710834 35.093996 43.375166 55.271622
2026-02-15 15.430963 18.696533 22.813887 28.520396 36.453399 47.471752 64.691393
2026-02-22 14.115639 17.502519 21.923428 28.308739 37.647833 51.447997 74.810993
2026-03-01 13.105791 16.576124 21.244353 28.238216 38.951206 55.729924 86.452351
2026-03-08 12.265176 15.781077 20.636272 28.150558 40.154496 60.007526 99.249473
2026-03-15 11.834784 15.501379 20.706050 29.046169 42.996126 67.529554 120.600756
2026-03-22 11.148067 14.792633 20.071569 28.752783 43.790475 71.540790 136.168585
2026-03-29 10.607933 14.250719 19.630085 28.701829 44.969132 76.489129 155.838909
2026-04-05 10.201409 13.872741 19.399518 28.959273 46.721442 82.952787 182.315670
2026-04-12 9.733344 13.367482 18.924570 28.739805 47.527743 87.581277 206.188484
2026-04-19 9.303681 12.903834 18.496087 28.585184 48.499073 92.977030 236.291757
2026-04-26 8.933706 12.510711 18.153553 28.551165 49.720870 99.341851 274.571212
2026-05-03 8.573716 12.111249 17.770433 28.401554 50.679845 105.354177 316.923950
2026-05-10 8.236213 11.727634 17.385631 28.207674 51.512986 111.308430 365.220909
2026-05-17 7.923180 11.365705 17.012014 27.996264 52.274253 117.326979 421.144878
2026-05-24 7.657379 11.066163 16.725246 27.925393 53.352232 124.667232 494.813061
2026-05-31 7.408685 10.781441 16.444907 27.838409 54.379493 132.246077 583.382215
2026-06-07 7.321112 10.759973 16.629412 28.719672 57.971339 149.837170 786.598035
2026-06-14 7.071624 10.451522 16.273930 28.430734 58.498571 156.851278 922.192897
2026-06-21 6.871081 10.217185 16.040020 28.380500 59.662239 166.850586 1127.243129
2026-06-28 6.722770 10.065530 15.949550 28.633861 61.714552 181.492646 1468.588449